Amazon’s ambitious project, *Red One*, featuring Dwayne Johnson and carrying a hefty price tag of over $200 million, kicked off its box office journey with previews netting $3.7 million. This number reflects both the initial screenings and a special viewing on Sunday, setting the stage for what could be a landmark opening for streaming releases. Analysts had projected that the film would rake in between $30 million to $35 million in its opening weekend, which would mark it as the highest debut for a film originating from a streaming service, surpassing the previous record held by Apple Original Films’ *Killers of the Flower Moon* at $23.2 million.
The film’s journey is all the more intriguing when considering its original conception as a direct-to-streaming release on Prime Video. Following positive test screenings, Amazon MGM decided to pursue a theatrical release, indicating a strategic pivot that reflects confidence in the film’s appeal. However, this pivot comes with a burden of expectations that could easily sway public perception of both the film and the Amazon brand.
When examining *Red One’s* earnings through the lens of recent non-IP films, it becomes apparent that context is key. The movie’s preview earnings surpass notable releases such as *Elemental* and *IF*, which garnered $2.4 million and $1.75 million, respectively. However, the landscape for box office performance has shifted dramatically since the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly for films without established intellectual property. Post-pandemic, only four non-IP films have achieved openings in the $30 million to $40 million range, which suggests that *Red One*, while poised for a decent reception, faces a competitive landscape that could diminish its potential for exceeding expectations.
With movies like *Bullet Train* and *M3GAN* each hitting about $30 million at their respective openings, and only one film, *Nope*, managing to break the $40 million threshold, *Red One’s* trajectory appears mixed at best. While Amazon MGM aims for a $35 million opening, much of its future growth relies on how the film resonates with audiences and whether it can build momentum in subsequent weeks.
For a conventional major studio, an opening of $35 million could be considered a setback, but for Amazon, with a market cap of $2.1 trillion, this figure is a minor setback in an expansive portfolio. The tech giant’s leadership, including Jennifer Salke and Julie Rapaport, have previously expressed that the true value of *Red One* will unfold over time, linking its success not merely to box office numbers but also to the broader implications for Amazon’s ecosystem—potentially driving subscriptions to Prime Video and ancillary sales across its various services.
It is evident that traditional metrics don’t apply straightforwardly in the case of streaming giants like Amazon. The concept of leveraging a film to benefit multiple business aspects may confuse traditional studios, especially in light of Apple’s rethink of its cinematic strategy following a string of costly initiatives.
However, challenges loom in regards to critical reception. Currently sitting at an abysmal 34% on Rotten Tomatoes, *Red One* clearly faces skepticism from critics who have historically been hard on Dwayne Johnson’s commercial endeavors. Despite this, Johnson has demonstrated resilience with audiences, as evidenced by previous films receiving better CinemaScores. *San Andreas* and *Rampage* both managed A- ratings, while *Black Adam* secured a B+. *Red One’s* early reception may indicate a schism between critical review and audience enjoyment, a dynamic worth monitoring in the upcoming weeks.
The other challenge *Red One* faces is international appeal. While the film expands globally, its Christmas-centric storyline may not resonate everywhere. Thus, the film’s performance internationally, which currently reflects a modest $36 million across 75 territories, indicates both potential and limitation in global markets.
Ultimately, *Red One* stands at a crossroads. It is marketed as a film that could establish Amazon as a significant player in theatrical releases, yet its current projections suggest a more complex reality. The engagement levels, audience responses, and decision-making from Amazon’s executives will significantly influence the movie’s legacy, determining whether it becomes a festive classic or merely a seasonal footnote. Through examining these elements, it is clear that while *Red One* might possess the glitzy veneer of a holiday blockbuster, it must deliver substantive enjoyment to ensure its spot in the cinematic pantheon.