This Thanksgiving, the domestic box office is gearing up for a spectacular revival, likely marking the most successful holiday weekend since the onset of the pandemic. The driving force behind this surge is Disney’s much-anticipated sequel, “Moana 2,” which is slated for release on Wednesday. Predictions suggest that this vibrant animated flick could rake in between $120 million and $150 million across the U.S. and Canada alone by the end of the holiday weekend. Joining this promising lineup are Universal’s “Wicked” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” both of which have already captured audiences’ attention during their second week in theaters. Box office analysts are optimistic that the total ticket sales for this five-day Thanksgiving weekend could surpass $200 million, potentially making it one of the highest-grossing periods in Thanksgiving cinematic history.
The convergence of these three major releases—“Moana 2,” “Wicked,” and “Gladiator II”—is being hailed as a “perfect storm” for theaters, according to Shawn Robbins, an expert in box office analytics. Historically, Thanksgiving has been a golden opportunity for studios to release films that appeal to a diverse audience, but this balance has been difficult to achieve in the aftermath of COVID-19. This year, however, the strong trio of tentpole films is anticipated to not only draw in families but also wider demographics, potentially yielding some impressive box office statistics.
Marking a distinct change from recent years, where box office performance has often lagged, this Thanksgiving weekend feels different, resembling the industry’s pre-pandemic highs. In a statement, Paul Dergarabedian, a senior media analyst, emphasized the crucial role that this holiday plays in determining the year’s final box office revenue. The success seen during this period can significantly influence the industry’s overall perception as either triumphant or struggling.
Reflecting on past performances, Thanksgiving weekends have historically produced robust box office figures, the most lucrative of which occurred in 2018, grossing a remarkable $315 million. That year featured a formidable lineup of films, including “Ralph Breaks the Internet” and “Creed II.” The closest competition came in 2013, when movies garnered $294.2 million during the same holiday stretch. In stark contrast, the box office has struggled in more recent years, with the 2021 release “Encanto” earning a modest $40.6 million and Disney’s “Strange World” incurring a severe underperformance with only $18.9 million in 2022.
Given Disney’s historical dominance over the Thanksgiving box office with animated releases, the stakes are particularly high for “Moana 2.” Following a series of underwhelming performances that failed to capture the magic of past animated hits—like “Frozen II,” which achieved a stunning $125 million during its 2019 release—the entertainment giant stands poised for a recovery. The original “Moana,” introduced in 2016, set a promising benchmark with $82.1 million, but recent releases have struggled to reach those heights.
However, the current climate appears more favorable for “Moana 2.” With the first movie being crowned the most-streamed film for families over the past year and the overwhelming success of Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2,” which grossed over $1 billion globally, there’s a feeling of anticipation rooted in nostalgia and familial connection. This combination of factors creates an environment ripe for “Moana 2” to surpass the lackluster performances of its recent predecessors.
As we prepare for the Thanksgiving weekend, the box office landscape seems positioned for a significant rebound. The trio of major releases, especially “Moana 2,” is set to revive the excitement of the holiday film season, potentially rewriting box office history. The outcome of this weekend could signal a resurgence for cinemas, highlighting not only the enduring appeal of major franchises but also the resilience of the film industry in adapting to a post-pandemic world. With audiences eager to engage with the magic of cinema once again, this Thanksgiving might just be the turning point the industry has been hoping for.